My Forex Swing Trading Strategy

TFD Fibonacci Swing Strategy

Account & Goal

I’m trading a $100 live account, and my goal is to grow it to $1000 using a swing trading approach.

Pairs I Trade

I focus on these currency pairs:

CADCHF
AUDCAD
USDCHF
EURGBP

I chose these pairs because they move slower and give me time to think, plan, and wait patiently for clean setups. They help me stay disciplined and avoid emotional trades.

When I see a textbook setup, I’ll also trade these faster-moving pairs and assets:

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCAD
GBPAUD
GBPJPY
XAUUSD (Gold)
NAS 100 (Nasdaq 100 Index)

I don’t force trades with these instruments. They are more aggressive, so I only trade them when all my confluences and rules are aligned. The setup has to be A+, and I only trade the smallest lot size.

Risk Management

I use a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.

Before I enter a trade, I always calculate my lot size based on: my account balance, the 1%-5% risk rule, and the size of my stop loss. This way, I stay consistent, emotionally detached, and focused on execution, not just outcome.

I only risk 5% (max) of my account per trade, no matter how good the setup looks. My stop loss is always 50 pips, but I don’t place it randomly. I place my SL just beyond structure, where the trade idea is clearly invalidated. This way, I protect my capital without getting stopped out by normal price noise.

My broker doesn’t allow me to trade smaller than 0.01 lot, so I’m forced to risk $0.10 per pip. With my 50-pip stop loss, 0.01 lot means a $5 risk, which is 5% of my account. I’m not risking 5% because I’m being greedy or want fast profits; I’m doing it so I can trade the minimum lot size available to me because my account is small. This is temporary. I’ll scale down my risk to 1% as my account grows; that’s my reward for staying disciplined.

Take Profit Management

I aim for a minimum 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio on every trade. That means if I risk 50 pips, I’m targeting at least 150 pips in profit.

Where I place my Take Profit (TP) depends on what the market is offering, but I always make sure it’s in line with the structure. I place TP at or just before one of the following:

order block
filled imbalance
liquidity pool (BSL, SSL)
major swing high/low
fib level
key level
psychological level

If the move offers more than a 1:3, I don’t cut myself short; I’ll hold for more as long as structure supports it.

I don’t move my TP randomly. I set it before I enter the trade, based on what the market is showing me. If price starts stalling near my TP, I may lock in partials or trail my stop just beyond recent structure, but only if it makes sense with the trend and momentum.

I manage TP with discipline, just like I manage my entry and stop loss. No guessing. No greed. Just structure, logic, and control.

My Take Profit & Trailing Stop Management Process

I aim for a minimum 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio, but I also manage the trade step by step as price moves in my favor. Here’s how I manage take profit and my stop loss:

TP1: +50 pips
- Once price reaches 50 pips in profit, I move my stop loss to breakeven to eliminate risk.
TP2: +100 pips
- When price hits the next 50 pips (total of 100 pips), I move my stop loss to TP1, locking in 50 pips of profit.
TP3: +150 pips
- When price hits 150 pips in profit, I either close the full trade or continue to manage it depending on what structure is showing me.
- If structure supports continuation, I keep trailing my stop loss by 50 pips for every new 50-pip move.

How I Decide to Trail or Close

If price starts slowing down, rejecting key levels, or showing reversal signs, I’ll close the trade at TP3 and take profit.
If structure is clean and price is still trending strongly, I let it run and trail the stop in 50-pip increments, always placing it behind recent structure.

Timeframes I Use

Higher Timeframe (Daily & Weekly)

I analyze higher timeframes like Daily and Weekly to determine the overall market bias.

Direction Timeframe (4h)

I use the 4-hour chart to identify the current stage of the market, whether price is in an impulse, a retracement, a consolidation, or a reversal.

On this timeframe, I also focus on: Breaks of structure (BOS), Failed swings, Order Blocks (untouched), Liquidity (BSL, SSL, and Swing Points), and Imbalance.

Entry Timeframe (30m, 15m & 5m)

For precise entries, I watch the 30-minute, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts.

Entry Criteria

I wait for price to retrace into my Fibonacci zone, that’s where I expect price to react.
Within that zone, I focus on my Points of Interest (POIs):

Order blocks (including breaker blocks)
Imbalances
Buy/sell liquidity
Swing points
Fibonacci levels
Previous key levels
Psychological levels

Reversal Patterns I Trust

I look for reversal candlestick patterns that support my bias:

Failed swing
Strike and reverse (liquidity grab)
Double bottom/top

How I Enter Trades

I wait for price to retrace to POIs within my Fibonacci zone.
When a reversal candlestick pattern that supports my bias forms, I wait for price to retest that pattern.
Once the retest is confirmed, I enter the trade.

My Top-Down Analysis & Entry Process

1. Higher Timeframe (Bigger Picture)

I analyze the Daily and Weekly charts to determine the overall trend of the market: bullish or bearish. Then I identify the overall stage, whether the market is an impulse, retracement, consolidation, or reversal. This helps me stay aligned with the bigger picture.

2. Direction Timeframe (BUY or SELL)

Once I have my higher timeframe bias, I move to the 4-hour chart to understand the HTF stage of the market. I first identify the trend of the 4h and the current stage of the 4h, whether the price is in:

an impulse (strong trending move),
a retracement (pullback within trend),
a consolidation (sideways movement), or
a reversal, which can either be a continuation of the HTF trend or a change in direction.

On the 4H, I also look for:

Breaks of structure (BOS) to confirm continuation or a shift
Failed swings to spot early reversals or trend weakness
Liquidity zones where price might hunt stops before moving
Imbalance zones that price may return to fill

Once I’m clear on the 4H direction, I drop down to the 30M, 15M, or 5M chart to look for a trade only if price retraces into my Fibonacci zone.

3. Entry Timeframe

Inside that zone, I look for my Points of Interest (POIs):

Order blocks (including breaker blocks)
Imbalance
Buy/sell liquidity
Swing highs/lows
Previous key levels
Psychological levels

Then I wait for a reversal candlestick pattern that supports my 4H bias, such as:

Failed swing
Strike and reverse (liquidity grab)
Double bottom or double top (based on bias)

Once that pattern forms, I wait for a retest of the pattern or zone, and that becomes my entry trigger.

I place my stop loss just beyond structure (around 50 pips), so that if price breaks that level, I know the setup is invalid.

I only enter when my confluences and rules are aligned. That means:

The higher timeframe and 4H bias agree
Price has retraced to a valid POI in my fib zone
A valid reversal pattern has formed and retested
Risk:reward is at least 1:3

If anything’s missing, I don’t force the trade. I wait for everything to line up.